Archive for June, 2008

The Next Buffett

June 24, 2008 5:04 am

The May 2008 issue of MoneySense magazine contained an article entitled “The Next Buffetts”.  The article posed the question, “who is the next great Buffett-like investor”? The article then went on to list four potential candidates.  On the face of it, a list of four seems like it must be too small a pool of candidates.  That is not surprising — this is
MoneySense magazine and is not exactly known for it’s in depth articles.  (That is not an insult; they do their job very well, IMO.)

The four candidates were: Prem Watsa, Tim McElvaine, Dr. Michael Burry, and Ian Cumming. Prem Watsa seemed like a good choice but Tim McElvaine seemed like a stretch to me.  Another name that could be on that list that popped into my head was Tom Stanley.

Tom Stanley, 53, is the founder and Portfolio Manager of Resolute Funds.

He started the Resolute Growth Fund in 1993 and, in 2006, when he found regulations were making it difficult to run his fund, he closed it and created a private mutual fund, Resolute Performance Fund, in order to avoid disclosure regulations.

Best Call

Resolute Growth Fund produced annual average returns of 29.63% from 1993-2006.  The Performance Fund has actually improved on this stellar performance returning an average annual return of 47.09% (as of June 24, 2008).

Resolute Performance

Worst Call

Results can vary year to year with occasional large drawdowns (30%+).  Also, 2007 was a losing year with a loss of 5.1%.

Why He’s Like Buffett

  • He eats his own cooking — he is the largest investor in his fund.
  • Stanley eschews the crowd (his office is in North Toronto away from Bay Street) and is a contrarian investor.
  • Does not believe in diversification; he goes with his best ideas and typically will hold only 10-20 stocks.
  • He’s thrifty.  Resolute runs a tight ship with only a few employees and a minimalist office with used furniture.

Why He’s Not Like Buffett

  • Unlike Buffett, he shuns the media.  For such a sterling track record there are very few published media articles.
  • He is a fund manager and not a CEO.  Although, annual fees are low for this type of investment: 3% MER with no performance fees.
  • Stanley does not subscribe to one specific investment style.  He is flexible like John Templeton rather than subscribing exclusively to Buffett’s value approach.

For more information on Tom Stanley’s Philosophy consult his site.

Firefox 3.0 Drops

June 19, 2008 4:29 am

Firefox 3.0 was released yesterday to great success with 8 million downloads.  So much so that the demand brought the mozilla download servers down intermittently;  it took quite a bit of patience to download.  (To be fair, they sort of begged people to crash their servers with their desire for a world download record.  :) )  After only a day of playing with the new version, I really like it.  The new UI is nice but my favorite feature (so far) is the increased performance I’m seeing.  I’m not talking about any Javascript benchmarks but what I care about — how fast the pages I visit load and render.  GMail and my customized google home page are rendering noticeably faster.

It feels great to install a software upgrade that actually delivers a better product instead of a more bloated product chock-full of useless features that I will never use.  Psst, I’m looking at you Adobe Acrobat Reader.

A Year of Quant

June 13, 2008 4:57 am

A previous post discussed my embracing of quantitative analysis and presented an end of year update. The system is now over a year old and I thought it would be appropriate to revisit the system and see how it has been doing over the last year.

*To see what the system is holding at any time (along with delayed quotes) consult the side bar for a list of current holdings.

Over the whole year, I have tweaked the system about 3 times. I have also started using walk forward analysis to tune the system parameters. My plan is to re-optimize yearly based on the prior 2 years worth of data. This interval seems to be effective in optimizing the parameters.

Results

The system was begun on May 23, 2007 and has performed quite well!

Performance from May 23, 2007 – June 1, 2008:

System 23%
S&P/TSX Composite index 4%

As one stock pundit would say, that’s better than a sharp stick in the eye. I’m glad that the system has done well but the effect of luck on a short sample size cannot be discounted. Translation: it’s better to be lucky than good. I hope that over the years I can be both. :)

Winners and losers are even at 50% each which is inline with historical testing. POT has been the biggest winner by far (up more than 150%) followed by TIM which has doubled. Although to be fair, I did get stopped out of TIM for a 20% loss prior to the big gain. The worst performer of the first year was VNX with a loss of 29%.