I got my new copy of QuickTax in the mail the other day.

No, I didn’t pay for it.  I didn’t even ask for it!

In a previous post, I wrote about why I wouldn’t be using QuickTax any longer. It seems that Intuit has decided to mail out physical CDs of QuickTax in the hope of getting folks to install it and then purchase the software.  I think it reeks of a desperate attempt to recapture their lost sales and I’m hoping that people don’t fall for this and that this ends up costing Intuit more money than they recoup.

Yes, I’m still bitter over last years money grab. 

Categories: Finance
No Comments »

A few days ago I got an email from QuickTax announcing: “QuickTax, more value now with 8 returns”.  Of course, they forgot to mention that they totally ripped everyone off last year when they reduced the number of returns from 5 down to 2.  Now they increase the number of returns up and we are supposed to jump up and down?  I don’t think so.  Last year, I purchased QuickTax without realizing that the number of returns was too small for my needs.  So, I actually had to go out and either buy more licenses of QuickTax (not likely!) or buy another product.  I chose to purchase UFile mainly because of the price.  Sure, it was a different way to do the tax return but, you know what?  Previous years QuickTax forms were imported fine, the return got done and it cost less than QuickTax.  I’m also thinking about not spending anything for tax software and using studiotax instead.

Whichever way I decide, one thing is certain, Intuit will not be receiving any more of my money.

Categories: Finance
1 Comment »

The May 2008 issue of MoneySense magazine contained an article entitled “The Next Buffetts”.  The article posed the question, “who is the next great Buffett-like investor”? The article then went on to list four potential candidates.  On the face of it, a list of four seems like it must be too small a pool of candidates.  That is not surprising — this is
MoneySense magazine and is not exactly known for it’s in depth articles.  (That is not an insult; they do their job very well, IMO.)

The four candidates were: Prem Watsa, Tim McElvaine, Dr. Michael Burry, and Ian Cumming. Prem Watsa seemed like a good choice but Tim McElvaine seemed like a stretch to me.  Another name that could be on that list that popped into my head was Tom Stanley.

Tom Stanley, 53, is the founder and Portfolio Manager of Resolute Funds.

He started the Resolute Growth Fund in 1993 and, in 2006, when he found regulations were making it difficult to run his fund, he closed it and created a private mutual fund, Resolute Performance Fund, in order to avoid disclosure regulations.

Best Call

Resolute Growth Fund produced annual average returns of 29.63% from 1993-2006.  The Performance Fund has actually improved on this stellar performance returning an average annual return of 47.09% (as of June 24, 2008).

Worst Call

Results can vary year to year with occasional large drawdowns (30%+).  Also, 2007 was a losing year with a loss of 5.1%.

Why He’s Like Buffett

• He eats his own cooking — he is the largest investor in his fund.
• Stanley eschews the crowd (his office is in North Toronto away from Bay Street) and is a contrarian investor.
• Does not believe in diversification; he goes with his best ideas and typically will hold only 10-20 stocks.
• He’s thrifty.  Resolute runs a tight ship with only a few employees and a minimalist office with used furniture.

Why He’s Not Like Buffett

• Unlike Buffett, he shuns the media.  For such a sterling track record there are very few published media articles.
• He is a fund manager and not a CEO.  Although, annual fees are low for this type of investment: 3% MER with no performance fees.
• Stanley does not subscribe to one specific investment style.  He is flexible like John Templeton rather than subscribing exclusively to Buffett’s value approach.

For more information on Tom Stanley’s Philosophy consult his site.

Categories: Finance
No Comments »

A previous post discussed my embracing of quantitative analysis and presented an end of year update. The system is now over a year old and I thought it would be appropriate to revisit the system and see how it has been doing over the last year.

*To see what the system is holding at any time (along with delayed quotes) consult the side bar for a list of current holdings.

Over the whole year, I have tweaked the system about 3 times. I have also started using walk forward analysis to tune the system parameters. My plan is to re-optimize yearly based on the prior 2 years worth of data. This interval seems to be effective in optimizing the parameters.

Results

The system was begun on May 23, 2007 and has performed quite well!

Performance from May 23, 2007 – June 1, 2008:

System 23%
S&P/TSX Composite index 4%

As one stock pundit would say, that’s better than a sharp stick in the eye. I’m glad that the system has done well but the effect of luck on a short sample size cannot be discounted. Translation: it’s better to be lucky than good. I hope that over the years I can be both.

Winners and losers are even at 50% each which is inline with historical testing. POT has been the biggest winner by far (up more than 150%) followed by TIM which has doubled. Although to be fair, I did get stopped out of TIM for a 20% loss prior to the big gain. The worst performer of the first year was VNX with a loss of 29%.

Categories: Finance
No Comments »

I see this year that QuickTax 2007 has lowered the number of returns (over $25,000 net income) that can be processed from 5 to 2. You can buy extra returns for $15 each ($10 for Basic). Basically, to get the same 5 returns you got last year you need to dish out $85! That’s a ridiculous increase and their defense is laughable.

Needless to say, I won’t be buying QuickTax next year.

Categories: Finance
No Comments »

Well, 2008 is upon us and I wanted to take some time to look back at 2007. From an investment point of view, that is.

This was the year I embraced quantitative analysis. My main goal was to eliminate emotion from my trading. A complete list of “bad behaviors” I was attempting to exorcise would be another post of it’s own. So I set out to develop a trading system of my own.

I stumbled on Amibroker and used that as my platform. As an aside, I’ve since looked at some other products (that is a subject for another day) but none has been able to touch Amibroker for speed or for price.

The system is loosely based on the Flare Out Growth Model by John Markman which I had followed during the late 90’s bubble. The system will only go long stocks over $3 on the TSX.

Results

The system was begun on May 23, 2007 and has performed well — although not as well as I had hoped.

Performance from May 23, 2007 – Dec. 31, 2007:

System                  10.3%
S&P/TSX Composite index -2.4%

So, I am outperforming the index by a fair margin which is good. On the downside, the maximum drawdown was a gut wrenching 24% during the August sub-prime meltdown.

As noted, there are weaknesses in the system so I’m hoping that my good fortune continues into 2008. Current positions can be tracked here.

Categories: Finance
1 Comment »

Call me a fool, then!

The reason for the fool quote is that I am actually quoted on The Motley Fool about one of my favorite stocks, Gildan Activewear. The article can be found here. In that article, I’m tuzowilson, by the way. Not a big quote, but still a quote.

Categories: Finance
No Comments »

I’ve taken up trying to develop a stock system. The main tool I’ve been using is AmiBroker, a technical analysis tool. It also lets you run back tests etc.

The results can be seen at StockPickr:

http://www.stockpickr.com/members/port/tuzopickr

So, far the performance has been very good — although the US markets have been doing very nicely during the same time.

Not to be a shill, but AmiBroker is a really nice product and very programmer friendly. It has it’s own scripting language, let’s you call out to code from the scripting language, has a COM interface so you’re programs can manipulate the program and has an SDK for developing c++ plugins.

Categories: Finance, Tech
No Comments »

As far as I can tell every RRSP plan does not allow you to hold foreign currency. Or, to put it another way, I have not seen one that will. In fact ETRADE Canada says the following:

“Canada Revenue Agency does not allow RRSP accounts to be held in a foreign currency”
(https://www.canada.etrade.com/pages/retire/rrspFAQ.shtml#CAnIHave)

That is the standard line that you will hear from most brokers. What this means is that if you buy and sell foreign stocks (including US stocks) then they will not allow you to settle in a foriegn currency so that every time you buy or sell a stock the broker will convert to and from the foreign currency. Of course, every time they convert the broker will take about 2% (the actual amount depends on the broker) spread over and above the posted exchange rate so to break even you will have to get about a 4% return (not including commisions!). This is a tough burden to overcome.

However, if one goes to the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) website the following statement appears:

“Money and deposits of money may be qualified investments. Money denominated in any currency is a qualified investment except where the money is held for its collectible value, or the fair market value of the money exceeds its stated value as legal tender in its country of issue.“
(http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pub/tp/it320r3/it320r3-e.html#P184_28565)

So it seems that there is no government restrictions in holding foreign currencies! The problem is that the brokers just don’t let you do it. And why not? That currency spread sure looks good to them. If you have a self-directed RRSP and trade foreign stocks, then I would encourage you to contact your broker and ask for them to comply with the CRA policy — the money you save could be your own.

Categories: Finance
1 Comment »